Every poker player is a winning poker player … to hear them tell it. But how many of these players are telling the truth?  Winning. It’s a drumbeat theme on Web sites and poker blogs, and in chat rooms and discussion groups.  I’m active on a couple of these and have invested a lot of time and energy on this topic.

My fellow poker junkies are a knowledgeable and successful gang. A good bit of what follows comes from our discussions, although the opinions expressed are mine.  I expect that not everyone will agree with me. If you take issue, leave a comment. There are few better ways to learn than by having legit, solid disagreements.

The Stakes Matter

First, the stakes being played for are critical.  This feature so overwhelms all others that we need to break the discussion down into levels – where “level” refers to cash, not skill.  You can find excellent players at the lowest stakes and truly horrible players at the highest.  Second, private house games are different from games in licensed card rooms, live play is different from online poker play, and short-handed play is different from full-ring games.

For this essay, I’m restricting myself to ring games played live in a brick-and-mortar casino or card room with a dealer hired by the house.  The other settings have a host of basic differences that force a different kind of discussion – which we can have some other time.

Lowest Levels: Limitations of Low-Limit

Here I’m thinking of the lowest stakes routinely played, from the 50¢/$1 Texas Holdem Limit games (although games this small are rare), through the more frequently spread $1/$2 Limit, to the popular $2/$4 games.  An awful lot of folks play at this level of poker.

I suspect that maybe as many as 80% to 85% of all regular poker players never venture above it.  There aren’t any No-Limit games spread these days that, in my mind, qualify.  The least costly that’s commonly found is $1/$2 with a maximum buy-in of $100, which is certainly not at the “lowest” level.  I am quite certain that, among these legions of regulars, there are no long-term winners.

None, ningunos, net, keine.  This game essentially cannot be beaten on anything like a long-term basis. The problem is the natural variation in the game (i.e., “luck”), plus a host of other factors.  These include the rake – usually between $3 and $5 (although some rooms are now raking $6) per hand – the dealer’s toke and, as is often the case in these lower-limit games, a “bad beat” jackpot.

Combined, these costs mean that up to $8 is taken out of every pot. In a $1/$2 game this amounts to 4BBs an hour.  Winning 1 or 2 BB/hour under these conditions would be a glorious but essentially unreachable goal and, even if you were sufficiently skilled to pull this off, the gas, food and waitress tokes will flat line you.  These lowest-level games are for recreational players only. If you play here and are only losing a little, which I interpret as 1SB an hour or less, you should be very pleased with yourself and happy.  You’re having a great time playing a fabulous game with friends and compatriots, and it’s costing you less than dinner at a decent restaurant or a movie for two at the local Cineplex.

Life is good.

Low to Mid-Levels: The Five Percenters

Here I include Limit games from $4/$8 up to $10/$20 or perhaps $15/$30, and No-Limit games with blinds of $1/$2 provided that the maximum buy-in is no more than $200.  At these levels it is possible to be a long-term, consistent winner, but it is a tough row to hoe.  As in the above games, the rake, tokes and bad beat jackpots present a nearly insurmountable barrier.

It’s difficult to see how one can play with +Expected Value at this level.  My guess is that fewer than 5% of the people who routinely play at these levels in legitimate cardrooms are making money.  Yes, a few whose skills are near to top of the game, with good bankroll management and nonexistent tilt factor, are clearing 1 or perhaps 2BB a hour.

But they are rare creatures.

Mid- to Semi-High Levels: The True Pros Emerge

These games run from $20/$40 to $80/$160 Limit and $ 2/$5 to $10/$20 No-Limit.  At these levels, things change. My estimate is that between 10% or 15% of regulars in these games are long-term winners (it could be a tad more; it’s hard to tell).

The impact of the rake is lessened at these stakes, but the critical factor is that it is at this level that you first find regular “contributors” – folks with a lot of money and a lot of gamble in ‘em.  Regular gamblers who routinely shoot craps with black chips and play blackjack with purples like to play poker too, but they don’t get any zip out of playing at lower levels.  They are rarely sufficiently skilled to present much of a problem to the experts and, as a result, provide the profit margin.

Not surprisingly, it’s at this level that the true poker professional first shows up.

High Stakes: Preying on the Rich

I’m counting as high stakes anything above the previous levels.  Here, things shift once more. My educated guess is that well over half of the players are longtime winners.  As with the preceding category, this is mainly because they feed off a (smaller but reliable) stable of well-heeled contributors.

There are a lot of millionaires who love action – you would likely recognize some of their names.  They are often good players and might do well at lower levels, but prefer to play with the very best.  Without these folks, the top players would just move money around and around the table.  A common guesstimate is that only about 5% of all regular players are long-term winners.

This is probably correct, but you need to appreciate that these players are distributed unevenly throughout the levels at which poker is played.

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A players eyes can be the biggest betrayer of information, this is why many pros wear sunglasses or visors/caps when playing, they know that the eyes rarely lie.  You see a lot of players these days wearing elaborate outfits to divert attention away from their eyes, because when you are dealt a monster hand you can’t help but to react.  I was playing poker with a friend of mine and I was dealt a strong hand and flopped a monster one, he was in the hand with me and folded because I “looked too confident”.  I attest to this day that my expression did not change, but subconsciously you can’t help but feel bold when you feel money is coming your way.

In many cases people have a tendency to act stronger than they really are, or act weaker when they really are strong.  This does not only apply in real life, but also this usually applies to novice players in card games; this will frequently apply to pros as well.  Players like to be actors, and when they have a monster hand they tend to look disinterested. For example: “Oh, is it my turn to act” or “Oh I guess I will play these cards”. Alternatively, a player increasing the level of his voice while raising the pot, and trying to look intimidating.  Is probably bluffing, but wants to give the impression that you don’t want to mess with him.

In an effort to be “sneaky” many players will get comfortable with a specific type of betting pattern.  This is usually the most revealing poker tell because it is based on the way a player habitually bets during particular situations. For example, maybe the player always checks when he has made the nuts, or a player may regularly fold after being re-raised.  If a player does the same thing in similar situations and you pick up on it that can be very lucrative for you.

There are many other types of tells that players have, and they can be as unique as the player is.  To increase your chances of winning poker tournaments pay more attention to what your opponents are doing, you never know when you might need that information later.

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Ivey has taken a different approach on Tuesday he posted a message on his Facebook account that was both powerful and honest at the same time.  Ivey revealed that his reputation has been damaged as a result of U.S. players not getting their money back yet, and he is not going to sit by and watch this injustice happen.  Here is an excerpt of Ivey’s statement:

“My name and reputation have been dragged through the mud, through the inactivity and indecision of others and on behalf of all poker players I refuse to remain silent any longer. I have electronically filed a lawsuit against Tiltware related to the unsettled player accounts. As I am sure the public can imagine, this was not an easy decision for me.  I wholeheartedly refuse to accept non-action as to repayment of player’s funds and I am angered that people who have supported me throughout my career have been treated so poorly.”

Ivey also went on to say that he will not play in the World Series of Poker this year because players who trusted Full Tilt will not be able to compete because their money is tied up on the site.  Ivey has also launched a lawsuit (http://www.scribd.com/doc/56836292/Ivey-Tiltware-Complaint-060111) against Tiltware the company that runs Full Tilt Poker because his name has been sullied by the slow response to return funds to U.S. players.  In the lawsuit Ivey claims he was never informed of illegal measures to process funds, nor was he made aware that the government was investigating.

This is a move that you have to respect; Ivey is not going to play in his sports biggest event because he is standing on principle.  That would be like Peyton Manning not playing in the Super Bowl, or Tiger Woods skipping the Master’s to make a point.  This situation is not just something to ignore and life just goes on, a lot of people became unemployed on April 15th when they lost access to their funds.  Ivey stands to lose a lot of money from endorsements, stakes, prop bets, and potential tournament winnings by not playing in the 2011 WSOP.

While Full Tilt scrambles to raise funds to repay players the WSOP goes on as scheduled, but without one of Pokers biggest names.  Ivey may not win the lawsuit, who knows with the legal system used in this country, but there is one thing he has won for sure.  The respect of a lot of people inside and outside of the poker community for standing up against the bad practices of the company that he worked for.

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A Pennsylvania man named Don Johnson has won approximately $15 million in six months playing blackjack at three Atlantic City casinos.  Surprisingly, Mr. Johnson came forward to do an interview with the Atlantic City Press about his winnings which is just odd, if you took three Casinos for that much money why would you do an interview with a newspaper?

If you listen to his story it’s kind of amazing, “By Johnson’s account, he won $4.23 million at Caesars Atlantic City in December. Next, he conquered Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa, winning about $998,000 in December, then $1.8 million in March and April and $2.25 million over two nights later in April. Most remarkable was his haul of $5.8 million during a 12-hour spree at Tropicana Casino and Resort in April, a record loss for the casino. Multiple sources in the casino industry confirmed the accuracy of Johnson’s story.” (http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com)

That is an amazing run, and although Johnson never divulged his strategy he said he is not a cheater.  The interesting part of this is that the casinos allowed Johnson to be $100,000 a hand and even gave him discounts of up to 20% on his losses to encourage him to keep playing.  He was of course given the high roller treatment every time he visited one of these Casinos, as they were hoping the next time would be the time that he lost big.

As a result of his success Johnson is $15.1 million dollars richer, but has been banned from most Atlantic City and Las Vegas casinos.  The Casinos that do allow him to play won’t let him bet large amounts and no longer offer him any discounts on his losses.  That is the interesting thing about Casinos they love you to death when you are losing your money to them, but as soon as you start winning too much they will kick you out for fear of losing money.  In the end it’s the ultimate house advantage!

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Passline Bet
In a simple passline bet, you place your bet on the passline before a new shooter begins his roll. This is known as the come out roll. If the shooter rolls a 7 or 11 you win. If the shooter rolls a 2, 3 or 12, you lose. If the shooter rolls any other number, that number becomes the point number. The shooter must roll that number again before a seven is rolled. If that happens, you win even money for your passline bet. If a seven is rolled before the point number is rolled again, you lose.

Example
A new shooter rolls the dice for the first time and they land on a 4 and a 2. The total is six, which becomes the “Point.” The dealers places a marker that looks like a hockey puck on the number 6 on the craps layout. The shooter must now roll a six before he rolls a 7. If he rolls the six, the passline bet wins and the shooter rolls again. This is a new comeout roll and the same procedure applies as the first time the shooter rolled the dice.

If the shooter rolls a seven before the six the pass line bet loses and the dice are passed to the next shooter.

Odds Bet
Once the point is established the bettor can make an additional bet behind the passline bet.  This is known as the “Odds Bet.” It is the only bet in the casino that does not have a house edge as it is paid off with true odds.

Most casinos offer double odds, which means you can make a bet twice the size of your pass line bet. If you passline bet is $5 you are allowed to make an odds bet of $10.

The odds bet is paid as following:
If the point is 4 or 10 it pays 2 to 1
If the point is 5 or 9 it pays 3 to 2
If the point is 6 or 8 it pays 6 to 5.

A passline bet is the simplest bet you can make on at the craps table and it will get you on your way to playing this exciting game.

An easy way to learn how to play craps is to take advantage of the free lessons offered by many of the casinos. The instruction will give you the basics and also show you some of the table etiquette that will make you feels more comfortable approaching the table.  Start our playing with the easiest method detailed here, and as you get more comfortable start to develop your system of play.

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People who play Poker Online know all about odds and outcomes, and at the end of the day they realize it’s gamble.  But after all of the recent issues with the Federal crackdown on major internet poker sites, it may be more of a gamble than it was before.  After federal prosecutors late last week shut down the country’s three most popular online poker websites, millions of players wondered if the money stored in their online accounts — in some cases tens of thousands of dollars or more — would ever be seen again. The web domain names for PokerStars, Full Tilt Poker and Absolute Poker are now seized and frozen by the U.S. government.

Update On The Case

Authorities have taken control of more than 75 company bank accounts in 14 countries, and are seeking $3 billion in fines and restitution. Frozen player accounts alone amount to billions of dollars money that for the past few days has been in legal limbo.  The good news: the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York on Wednesday announced a deal with two of the affected sites that eased players’ concerns somewhat PokerStars and Full Tilt would be allowed to resume operations, but only to refund player accounts. And the U.S. Attorney’s office said it would be willing to strike a similar arrangement with the third affected website. It may be weeks or longer, though, before players have their money in hand.

Online Poker Backers starting to Abandon Ship

The main problem when things like this happen are that if you are affiliated with the industry (Online Poker) in this case, you are going to be treated like you have the plague.  It has already started with ESPN (who had a major role in the poker boom) announcing that they will no longer air any poker related advertisements or poker shows that are related to the sites in question.  Basically this is like being a partner in a business and you come in one day to find that your partner has emptied the safe and take his things leaving you to hold the bag.  With ESPN being owned by Disney it’s no surprise that the “family” conscious parent company would run away like the plague once the federal government got involved.

All the money from sponsorship deals and television shows will dry up, and when the money dries up people start to lose interest.  What the federal government has effectively done here is erase the last eight years of poker from the history books, the Chris Moneymaker boom will seem like it never happened.  Poker is going to be relegated to a parlor game that some people play as the casual players will start to migrate to other interests.  Poker will never die, but it is going to take a long time for it to ever reach it’s height of popularity again.  This is the second or third major issue to hit online poker from the “superuser” incident, to the initial shutdown of Netteller a few years ago, and now this people can only stomach so much.

The Present and Future Of Online Poker

The fact that there are several sites still operating who did not violate laws is a bit of fools gold, yes you can deposit money and play on these sites.  The problem comes into play when you try to remove the money you have won from these sites, the law prohibits banks from processing payments from online pokers sites.  Which would theoretically make obtaining any money you win impossible for the most part, and if players try elaborate schemes to get their money out or register their address in another country it could lead to federal charges.  It is a risky proposition for anyone who made a career out of playing poker online, and it may mean they need to shift their play to brick and mortar casinos for the time being.  This won’t be as profitable for them, but at least it’s better than doing nothing or possibly being arrested.

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Eleven executives at PokerStars, Full Tilt Poker, Absolute Poker and a number of their affiliates were charged with bank fraud and money laundering in an indictment unsealed in a Manhattan court. Two of the defendants were arrested on Friday morning in Utah and Nevada. Federal agents are searching for the others.

Prosecutors are seeking to immediately shut down the sites and to eventually send the executives to jail and to recover $3 billion from the companies. By Friday afternoon Full Tilt Poker’s site displayed a message explaining that “this domain name has been seized by the F.B.I. pursuant to an Arrest Warrant.”

The online gambling industry has taken off over the last decade, drawing an estimated 15 million Americans to bet online.  In 2006 Congress passed a law curtailing online gambling. Most of the leading sites found ways to work around the law, but prosecutors allege that in doing so they broke the law.

“These defendants concocted an elaborate criminal fraud scheme, alternately tricking some U.S. banks and effectively bribing others to assure the continued flow of billions in illegal gambling profits,” Preet Bharara, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, said in a statement.

Poker fans took to Twitter in droves, worried about the money in their online gaming accounts, fretting that online poker’s days were at an end.  What’s lost in all of this is the fact that hundreds (maybe thousands) of Online Poker players are now unemployed, and some penniless until they can figure out if the government is going to give them back their money.

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Many players around the world feel they have what it takes to play poker as a full time career, but before deciding to choose this path, there are some disadvantages you would be faced with. Poker has many benefits, but it also has many negative consequences that come with playing long hours.  This guide will help you weigh some of the pros and cons before making the final decision to quit your current job and take the plunge.

Poker for a Living

The first thing you need to play any game for a living is patience. Playing every day, all day, can get extremely tiring.  Staring at a computer screen for hours on end can literally drive you insane. In addition, your fortunes online are prone to wild swings. You will occasionally sit down at a table, and have the worst luck the entire day when even your best hands get beaten consistently.  Be prepared to take the worst beats of your life along with huge runs that will make your bankroll soar.

Playing for a living requires extreme mental discipline and a steady game plan. It’s a good idea to record how many hours you play each day and what your total profit for the day is.  Do this for a month or two before you make the switch to becoming a full-time player. This will allow you to analyze your play and find out how much you make on average.  This will be a good preview to whether you can pay your bills off of what you make from poker.

Some Drawbacks of Playing Poker for a Living

No set income is something most people can’t live with, some months you’ll actually experience a loss in total earnings.  You must be able to cope with this and still have the confidence you need to win.  This can lead to physical and mental exhaustion, you’ll constantly be tired if you’re playing all day.  If you’re playing really high limits, you may not have to play all day to make a living. The fact is that most of the time you will need to grind it out all day to pay rent and bills and buy food.

Another drawback is reduced family time, snce you must make your money playing poker, you’ll tend to spend less time with your family. When a good poker player encounters a bad run, he or she will grind it out until they prevail.  This may call for some extremely long hours of play. Be prepared to play poker at any time. On losing months you’ll need to spend even more time on the computer or at the casino.  Also, imagine if you or someone in your family get sick, you must have some sort of plan to buy medical insurance or deal with those issues effectively.  One medical incident can wipe out an entire bankroll without much of an issue.

Advantages of Playing Poker for a Living

There are many advantages that help balance out playing poker for a living.  You can take off as many days as you want and never be hassled to wake up at 8 a.m., and working off of someone else’s clock.  You’ll also be playing one of the most intriguing games in the world for money.  It’s a great lifestyle if you’re a winning player, but a fairly horrible one if you are a losing player.

The fact is, most people can’t handle the swings that are unavoidable in full-time play. Every time you sit at the table you must change your personality and find a way to evolve to keep your game moving with your competitors.  When you take a bad beat, you can’t let it affect you. You must deal with the swings on a regular basis. You must also be a dedicated soul who will play even when the cards aren’t going your way. You must be a very disciplined and winning poker player (or at least a very rich one) to play for a living.

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Early In a poker tournament exist some of the easiest blind levels to play. You really want to fold most hands in this blind level until the fishy players are weeded out. The key is to stay calm, collected and in the zone until the middle rounds.

Some players fell that you should only play AA and KK in the early rounds. This strategy may be a little too tight. If you’re in late position with a pair or A-x suited, there is really no reason why you would want to fold, especially if you can get in cheap. While you want to double up in the early rounds, it’s not absolutely necessary to do so.

Try to stick with the basic strong, premium hands for the first blind level.  This is basic tournament strategy. This strategy alone will win tournaments for as long as you use it. You also may want to incorporate other elements that you find beneficial to your overall play. Although most people stick straight to the formula, there’ll be times when you need to change it up as poker is a constantly evolving game.

You may want to play more hands if you feel that you have a good read on the table and are fairly confident that you have a handle on your approach.  The following hands are a good basic way to start at the early levels.

Starting Hands

1. The Big Three – AA, KK, and QQ
2. Ace-King
3. Pairs – 22 through JJ
4. A-x suited

When playing one of the big three hands, take into account the average raise at the table. If you are seeing huge raises on your table you may want to throw out a huge raise pre-flop. On an average table, I will usually raise four or five times the big blind. On the flop, I bet no matter what, as long as there are two people or fewer in the pot. With more than two people in the pot, the flop must be optimal, and I must have what I think is the best hand. Bet huge with these hands and take it to the river. In most cases you’ll win because you were a favorite pre-flop.

Ace-King is a hand that can make or break your tournament. I usually like to raise this hand from any position, but if I’m re-raised pre-flop, I immediately become defensive. I must hit my ace or king on the flop, or I won’t bet. The players in the early rounds are usually fishy and will call bets on the flop with drawing hands or even low pair. If you have to, give up ace-king. It can be beaten consistently by a pair of 2s heads-up. The reason to play it hard is because it has the possibility of becoming the best hand when you hit the flop. I would raise ace-king three times the big blind because I like to play it cautiously.

Pairs and A-x suited are played in a straightforward manner. These hands are good for busting big pots with a lot of players in them. We want to limp in with them from late position. If there are a ton of people in the pot pre-flop on a small raise, I might call in hopes of trips or a flush/flush draw. These hands become worthless when the blinds become high because you will usually miss them on the flop. Also, as the tournament progresses and the blinds go up, short stacks push all-in way too much for you to be limping in with these hands.

That essentially covers the early rounds. Stay tight and if someone puts you all-in with ace-king, just fold it. There will be plenty of opportunities to go all-in as the tournament progresses. You are looking to put your money in when you know it’ll come back to you.

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If you have visited a brick and mortar casino or logged into an online casino recently then you have probably walked by a video poker machine and not paid much attention to it.  The fact is Video poker is one of the better options for playing a slot machine in a casino because unlike most slot games, you have the opportunity to make decisions to help you win.  A normal slot machine you are just pressing the buttons and hoping that it lands on a jackpot, or some sort of bonus and it’s totally up to the random number generator in the machine.  In video poker you can choose to go for winning a smaller amount more often, or trying to hit the bigger bonuses and jackpots it’s up to you.

The most widely-played version is called Jacks or Better Video Poker. In this game obtaining a pair of Jacks or any higher ranking Poker hand nets the player an increasingly larger payout based on both the quality of the hand and the number of credits wagered. The payout scales vary from machine to machine, and are classified by the ratio of payout between the Full House and Flush hands.  Video Poker is no different than regular poker with regard to how it is played the hand rankings are still the same, so it’s an easy transition for anyone who already has some familiarity with the game of poker already.  The hand rankings are as follows:

Royal flush: Ace, King, Queen, Jack, 10 all of the same suit (hearts, clubs, spades, or diamonds).

Straight flush: Five consecutive cards of the same suit; for example, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, of clubs.

Four of a kind: Four cards of the same rank; for example, ace of hearts, ace of spades, ace of clubs, ace of diamonds.

Full house: Three cards of one rank, two cards of another rank; for example, 3 of Diamonds, 3 of Hearts, 3 of Spades, 6 of Hearts, 6 of Spades.

Flush: Five cards of the same suit; for example, ace, 10, 7, 4, 3, all of Diamonds.

Straight: Five consecutive cards of mixed suits; for example, 2 of Diamonds, 3 of Hearts, 4 of Diamonds, 5 of Clubs, 6 of Spades.

Three of a kind: Three cards of the same rank; for example, 6 of Hearts, 6 of Clubs, 6 of Diamonds.

Two pair: Two cards of one rank, two cards of another rank; for example, Ace of Spades, Ace of Hearts, 7 of Clubs, 7 of Diamonds.

Pair of jacks or better: Two jacks, queens, kings, or aces.

The best way to win at video poker is to come up with a system that work for you, and that comes through having a plan for what you are trying to accomplish.  Making a few mistakes in strategy when playing can increase the house edge against you. Each video poker game has its own strategy, and you have to know which game you are playing whether it’s Jacks or Better or Deuces Wild.  Jacks or Better is the most popular and common game out there, so you should learn and develop your strategy off of that one first.  There are several strategy guides to get you started and that should be followed, one is Tomski’s Video Poker Strategy Master (VPSM), or you can try a piece of software called Jean Scott’s Frugal Video Poker.  These programs let you play video poker on your computer and point out mistakes as you play, so that you can learn the est strategy over time.

You can also find where you can play video poker for real money if you want to test your new strategy before booking a trip to the casino.  The advantage of Jean Scott’s Frugal Video Poker program is that it will also let you print out strategy cards that you can take to the casino with you, and while you are playing the program on your computer it will calculate how much real money you would have lost or won with your plays.  Video poker is all about repetition and staying true to your strategy, and if you do that you will have a lot of fun and win more than you have before.  If you enjoy playing slot machines then give Video Poker a try most people who try the game coming from traditional slot machines typically don’t go back to playing them.

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